Barry Boehm and Friends 2016

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Registrations closed. Click on any presentation name for download. Click here for photos from the conference.

E-mail for questions, registration, etc.: eventos@metricas.com.br.

Date: August 8, 2016

Time: 08:45am – 5:45pm

Venue: Blue Tree Premium Morumbi
Av. Roque Petroni Junior, 1000, Brooklin Novo – Sao Paulo – SP – 04707-000 (right across from Shopping Morumbi and 20 minutes from Congonhas domestic airport)
Tel.: +55 (11) 5187-1200
Hotel e-mail: reservas.morumbi@bluetree.com.br

Translation: There will be live translation English-Portuguese/Portuguese-English for the whole conference.

Food & Beverage: The conference includes two snacks, morning and afternoon. Lunch on your own.

Conference Registration Fee: US$ 400.00 (four hundred US dollars) via VISA or MASTERCARD. This fee covers the one-day conference only (including snacks – lunch on your own).

Last Registration Day: August 4th, 2016.

Speakers:

boehmDr. Barry Boehm is a USC Distinguished Professor and the TRW Professor in the USC Computer Sciences, Industrial and Systems Engineering, and Astronautics Departments.  He is also the Chief Scientist of the DoD-Stevens-USC Systems Engineering Research Center, and the founding Director of the USC Center for Systems and Software Engineering.  He was director of DARPA-ISTO 1989-92, at TRW 1973-89, at Rand Corporation 1959-73, and at General Dynamics 1955-59. His contributions include the COCOMO family of cost models, the Spiral family of process models, and the Theory W (win-win) approach for creating and evolving successful systems.  He is a Fellow of the primary professional societies in computing (ACM), aerospace (AIAA), electronics (IEEE), systems engineering (INCOSE), and Lean methods (LSS), and a member of the U.S. National Academy of Engineering.

Dr. Boehm’s Presentation:

Software Cost Estimation Meets Software Diversity

Our effort to define COCOMO III as a model to satisfy the needs of software estimators for at least the rest of the 2010s and most of the 2020s has encountered trends in software and systems engineering that make a single one-size-fits-all model unrealistic.  The talk will elaborate on trends in the nature of increasing diversity in software processes, products, properties, and people, and their implications for cost estimation approaches.

Processes.  COCOMO II supported the sequential Waterfall and more-concurrent Rational Unified Process.  Complicating the picture for the future are various forms of agile, lean, and Kanban approaches; iterative, spiral, and incremental commitment processes; open source development, and various forms of continuous and discrete-release evolution.

Products.  COCOMO II largely covered standalone products, with reuse parameters enabling estimates of various forms of reuse such as maintenance and product lines.  Future trends are more toward COTS-intensive and Cloud-Intensive products and services; Net-centric systems of systems and internets of things; Big-Data-intensive products and services; and growing complexes of apps and widgets.

Properties.  COCOMO II covers the effects of increasing levels of reliability, resource constraints, and various forms of complexity.  Future trends will need to address the costs of increasing security, safety, autonomy, and interoperability with independently-evolving co-depndent systems.

People.  COCOMO II covers the effects of personnel capability, experience, and continuity.  Future trends may need to address the effects on cost of further people capabilities such as thoroughness, adaptiveness, multitasking ability, and degrees of experience with the process, product, and property variants above.

These trends create challenges in determining the most appropriate size, cost driver, and scale factor parameters for the various combinations of process, product, property, and people factors above.  Besides these challenges in estimating development effort and cost, further challenges will be involved in methods and models for estimating maintenance effort and cost, technical debt, development schedule, and delivered software quality.  This will also involve challenges in determining common cases (pure agile, architected agile, open source, high criticality, product lines, systems of systems, legacy migration, COTS/services-intensive, etc.) for which specialized models can be developed with reasonable accuracy and less complexity than would be needed for a single comprehensive model.


capersjones4

Capers Jones is currently vice president and chief technology officer of Namcook Analytics LLC.  The web site of the company is www.Namcook.com. The corporate blog is http://Namcookanalytics.com.   Capers Jones email is Capers.Jones3@gmail.com. Prior to the formation of Namcook Analytics in 2012 Capers Jones was the president of Capers Jones & Associates LLC between 2000 and 2012. He is also the founder and former chairman of Software Productivity Research LLC (SPR).  Capers Jones founded SPR in 1984 and sold the company to Artemis Management Systems in 1998.  He was the chief scientist at Artemis until retiring from SPR in 2000. Before founding SPR Capers was Assistant Director of Programming Technology for the ITT Corporation at the Programming Technology Center in Stratford, Connecticut. During his tenure Capers Jones designed three proprietary software cost and quality estimation tools for ITT between 1979 and 1983. He was also a manager and software researcher at IBM in California where he designed IBM’s first two software cost estimating tools in 1973 and 1974 in collaboration with Dr. Charles Turk. Capers Jones is a well-known author and international public speaker.  Some of his books have been translated into five languages.  His five most recent books are The Technical and Social History of Software Engineering, Addison Wesley 2014;  The Economics of Software Quality with Olivier Bonsignour, Addison Wesley, 2011; Software Engineering Best Practices, McGraw Hill 2010; Applied Software Measurement, 3rd edition, McGraw Hill, 2008; and Estimating Software Costs, McGraw Hill, 2nd edition, 2007. Capers Jones data is also widely cited in software breach of contract litigation in cases where quality, productivity, and schedules are part of the proceedings.  Capers Jones has also worked as an expert witness in 15 lawsuits involving breach of contract and software taxation issues and provided background data to approximately 50 other cases for other testifying experts.  In some cases his data is used by both sides due to the fact that it is the only available published source of reliable quality data for software. (Note: Capers will participate in the conference remotely – via WebEx)

Capers Jones’s Presentation (remote presentation via WebEx):

Software Sizing and Cost Estimation in 2016

Software sizing in 2016 encompasses 23 metrics that include IFPUG function points, COSMIC function points, story points, use-case points, several kinds of “lines of code” and a number of other metrics..  Size in any metric is not constant but changes during development and after deployment.

The overall presentation discusses both manual and automated software cost estimating approaches.  For small projects < 250 function points manual and automated estimates are equivalent in accuracy.  But for projects larger than 1000 function points in size, automated estimating tools are more accurate and also less expensive.

It is interesting and significant that the manual estimating errors for large projects were not for coding, but rather for production of paper documents, testing, and quality control.  For large projects, activity-based estimates using automated tools appear to provide the most reliable and accurate results.

Successful estimates need to be accurate for all major cost drivers: requirements, design, coding, testing, documentation, management, quality assurance, and others.  Manual estimates are weak in every activity except coding.

Statement of speech purpose:

  • Explain the kinds of estimating methods used by industry
  • Explain the differences between estimation and project management tools
  • Explain the differences between macro estimation and micro estimation
  • Explain the major problems associated with achieving accurate estimates
  • Explain the features of major cost estimating tools
  • Explain the methods needed to defend accurate estimates

The talk shows sample data for sizing, development estimation, quality estimation, and maintenance and enhancement estimation.  Recent industry problems have added new needs to software estimation:  cyber-attacks, litigation, ERP deployment and customization are also needed in 2016..  New methodologies such as agile, DevOps, and micro-services also have to be estimated in the software world of 2016.


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Dr. Jo Ann Lane is a research associate professor at the University of Southern California (USC) Center for Systems and Software Engineering (CSSE), conducting research in the areas of SoS engineering, systems engineering, and software engineering.  Dr. Lane is a co-author of The Incremental Commitment Spiral Model: Principles and Practices for Successful Systems and Software. She was also a co-author of the 2008 Department of Defense Systems Engineering Guide for Systems of Systems. She received her PhD in systems engineering from the University of Southern California and her Masters’ in computer science from San Diego State University.

Dr. Lane’s Presentation:

The Incremental Commitment Spiral Model with Applications to Systems of Systems (SoS)

Commercial and defense organizations are finding that their current systems and software development policies, standards, and maturity models apply well to a declining number of the software-intensive systems they develop.  Rather, current software-intensive systems tend to be some combination of reuse-based, prototype-based, agile, architecture agile, plan-driven, product-line, system of systems, legacy-based, and COTS/cloud/open-sourced-based systems.  Applying traditional methods to this variety of systems can be frustrating and often unproductive.  The Incremental Commitment Spiral Model (ICSM) is a process model generator that extends the scope of the original spiral model for software development (the basis of most agile methods) to cover the definition, development, and evolution of cyber-physical-human systems.  It enables organizations to determine which process model, or combination of models, best fits the needs of each system, and to evolve those models over time as the development and operational environment changes.  In this presentation, one of the ICSM authors provides an overview of the ICSM, describing its history, principles, components, and scope. This is followed by a demonstration of its application in acquiring, developing, and managing an Information Technology (IT) system of systems.


madachy

Dr. Ray Madachy has been an Associate Professor since 2008 at the Naval Postgraduate School. Ray received his Ph.D. from the University of Southern California in 1994.  His research involves system cost estimation for total ownership cost, affordability and tradespace analysis, systems and software engineering process modeling and simulation, and integrating systems engineering and software engineering disciplines.  He authored the book Software Process Dynamics, and co-authored Software Cost Estimation with COCOMO II and Software Cost Estimation Metrics Manual for Defense Systems.

Dr. Madachy’s Presentation:

Software Process Dynamics

This presentation will overview software process dynamics modeling for assessing and optimizing software development strategies.  It explains how simulation of interrelated technical and social factors can provide a means for understanding and improving processes.  It will introduce software process modeling with system dynamics, model structures and system behaviors, the modeling process, and present case studies.  Relevant examples will be shown using function points for software sizing.


dianaDiana Baklizky is a Vice-President and Chief Scientist at TI Métricas in Sao Paulo, Brazil. She holds a degree in a Mathematics and an MBA in Business Administration. Diana is a CFPS (Certified Function Point Specialist), CSP (Certified SNAP Practitioner) , CCFL (COSMIC Certified – Foundation Level), and a PSM (Practical Software & Systems Measurement) Qualified Instructor. Diana is a member of the IFPUG Functional Sizing Standards Committee and also a member of the COSMIC Measurement Practices Committee. As TI Métricas Chief Scientist, Diana is responsible for the quality of the company’s deliverables, as well as discovering, assessing, and institutionalizing new approaches to software measurement and estimation. She has helped several TI Métricas clients in establishing estimating models using COCOMO II and other recognized techniques.

Diana’s Presentation:

Application of COCOMO II and Function Points in Brazilian Organizations

The joint application of IFPUG Function Points and the COCOMO II Model has brought important benefits to several organizations. In the past ten years TI Métricas has succesfully applied both techniques to support their clients in scenarios such as: large-scale, strategic and innovative initiatives and projects; supplier contract (re)negotiation; definition of system complexity profiles by business portfolio; definition of productivity bands by technological platform; indicator follow-up and the identification of process improvement opportunities in software development.

This presentation’s goal is to share practical applications of Function Points and COCOMO II in the definition of strategies for software acquisition and/or development.


Program

Start Duration End Activity
08:45 00:15 09:00 Opening Remarks
Mauricio Aguiar, TI Métricas / IFPUG Vice-President
09:00 01:00 10:00 Software Cost Estimation Meets Software Diversity
Barry Boehm, University of Southern California
10:00 00:30 10:30 Break
10:30 01:00 11:30 The Incremental Commitment Spiral Model with Applications to Systems of Systems (SoS)
Jo Ann Lane, University of Southern California
11:30 01:00 12:30 Software Process Dynamics
Ray Madachy, Naval Postgraduation School
12:30 01:30 14:00 Lunch on your own
14:00 01:00 15:00 Application of COCOMO II and Function Points in Brazilian Organizations
Diana Baklizky, TI Métricas
15:00 00:30 15:30 Break
15:30 01:00 16:30 Software Sizing and Cost Estimation in 2016
 Capers Jones, Namcook Analytics (remote presentation, live via WebEx)
16:30 01:00 17:30 Q&A
All speakers
17:30 00:15 17:45 Closing Remarks
Mauricio Aguiar, TI Métricas & IFPUG

Updates

This page will be periodically updated until the event date. The information herein may be changed at any time. In case of changes, the rights of registered attendees will always be fully respected.

Cancellation

In case of cancellation by the attendee, or for any reason out of our control (e.g., instructor no-show), the event organizers will reimburse you the full amount paid, there being no other compensation beyond that. Reimbursements should be requested at least a week before the conference – by July 30, 2016. In no case there will be a reimbursement for individuals attending the conference. Submitting a registration implies you fully understand and agree with these conditions.

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